Monday, December 29, 2008

India Defeated in the First Round.

 India Defeated in the First Round.

It is best to win without fighting.- Sun Tzu

With India and Pakistan stood eyeball to eyeball, it was India who
blinked first, with its media and officials admitting defeat on the
diplomatic front.

Times of India writes:

While the de-escalation should soothe the tense nerves of the
international community, it was being feared that Islamabad, by
raising the bogey of war, may have edged out India's concerns. By
feeding fears of an imminent conflict between two nuclear-armed
rivals, it had ensured that the focus would shift towards conflict
prevention. Indian security experts noted that Gilani made it a point
to mention that "our friends are persuading India against aggression".

While the government persisted with reminders to Islamabad about
unkept promises, independent security experts sid Pakistan may have
got away with almost no cost at all. "As of now, Pakistan has managed
to divert attention from the Mumbai attacks to an India-Pak
conflict," said K Subrahmanyam.

It was diplomacy by fear, and Pakistan played it effectively. As it
allowed passions to run high and let known terrorists join in the
show of national belligerence, it was also playing victim. As part of
the script, its foreign secretary, it now turns out, even summoned
the Indian high commissioner in Islamabad, Satyabrata Pal, on Friday
to lecture him on the need for India to bring down tensions.

The US and China had on Friday asked India - in a clear sign of
Pakistan's success - to engage in a dialogue with Pakistan. It's
becoming increasingly evident that India has so far nothing to show
for all its diplomatic offensive in the aftermath of the Mumbai

How could things have gone so wrong, wonders Vir Sanghvi of the
Hindustan Times:

I am now coming round to the view that they've only gone wrong for
us. They've gone very right for Pakistan. Islamabad has got exactly
what it needs, and what it always wanted.

Consider what's happening today. The operation in the tribal areas
has stalled. The Taliban have sworn to back the Pakistan army against
India. Troops have been moved to the Indian border. The incoming
Obama administration is talking about appointing a special envoy for
India and Pakistan.

And forget about acting against those who organised the Bombay
attacks. Pakistan isn't even willing to hand over Dawood Ibrahim or
Masood Azhar. Moreover, Washington seems largely content with this
state of affairs.

I don't want to sound like a pessimist or a war-monger — especially
since I have always applauded New Delhi's moderation and restraint —
but it is beginning to seem to me that Pakistan has out-manoeuvered
both India and America.

M K Bhadrakumar writes at Asia Times Online:

By gently holding out the threat to the US that the Afghan operations
would grievously suffer unless Washington restrained Delhi from
precipitating any tensions on the India-Pakistan border, Islamabad
seems to have neatly pole-vaulted over Rice to appeal straight to the
Pentagon, where there is abiding camaraderie towards the Pakistani

With Pakistan's recalcitrance and Mullen's veiled threat of reopening
the Kashmir file, a sense of frustration is gripping Delhi. Pakistan
has ignored India's tough posturing. The faltering Indian security
agencies, which have been in a state of appalling decline in recent
years, seem to have failed to put together any hard evidence of a
Pakistani involvement in the Mumbai attacks.

All indications are that Pakistan is not impressed by the Indian
rhetoric. It seems to think Indian politicians are grandstanding in
an election year. But, just in case Delhi may spring a surprise,
Pakistani army chief General Ashfaq Kiani has warned that the armed
forces would give an equal response "within few minutes" if India
carried out any surgical military strikes. "The armed forces are
fully prepared to meet any eventuality, and the men are ready to
sacrifice for their country," he reportedly said.

Just as we predicted, an all out war seems to have been averted and
Indian media and officials are admitting defeat.

China, Saudi Arabia and Iran have come out strongly in the last
couple of days which saw an intense diplomatic effort by all parties
to make it clear to India that they not only remain unconvinced of
Delhi's allegations, but also that any attack could have serious
consequences for India and the region as a whole.

Pranab Mukherjee was made to do an embarassing u-turn on India's
previous stance previously, admitting that terrorism - a global issue
and not a bilateral one - should be fought jointly.

The Indian officials have also been made to backtrack from their
earlier claims of deplying troops along the border with Pakistan.

Times of India, December 22nd:
Even as India refused to take the military option off the table while
asking Pakistan to rein in the terrorists, the Indian Army's and
IAF's quick reaction teams (QRTs) were deployed along the borders in
the Western Sector.

"Runways, hangars, main roads, ammunition stores and other sensitive
places have been provided with additional cover. Sophisticated radars
are installed at a few air bases and we are keeping watch on each and
every cross-border activity," said an IAF personnel.

Indian forces were on regular firing exercises at locations like
Lathi Firing Range in Jaisalmer, Mahsan in Bikaner, Suratgarh and

India Today, December 27th:
India has informed Pakistan that it has not engaged in any sort of
troop build-up along the frontier

In response to the `deadline' set by India and the threats from Sonia
Gandhi and Pranab Mukherjee, Pakistan had gone on a diplomatic
counter-offensive, briefing world powers and countries in the region
on the deteriorating relations with India and the steps taken by it
to address Indian concerns. Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir met
ambassadors of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council —
the US, Britain , China , France and Russia . He also met
ambassadors of Italy , Japan , Germany , Saudi Arabia , Iran and
Turkey soon after returning from France where he had gone for annual
bilateral consultations. However, his most crucial meeting was with
Indian High Commissioner Satyabrata Pal at the Foreign Office when he
said that India should defuse tension.

Mr Pal was accompanied by his deputy Manpreet Vohra. The Indian side
was categorically told that any `surgical strikes' would be
considered a declaration of war. India was urged to respond to
Pakistan 's proposal for joint investigation into the Mumbai attacks.

According to sources, the Indian diplomats looked sombre when they
came out of the meeting.

As things stand, the possibility of war has been averted for now in
which is being seen as a massive diplomatic victory for Pakistan.

This of course does not mean that we should let our guard down. In
addition to the diplomatic counter-offensive, it was Pakistan Army's
seriousness that put India on the backfoot.

Once the realization set in that any further attempts to enter
Pakistan Airspace will be punished severely by the PAF, the Indians
had gone to plan B, with Mullen asking for a guarantee that PAF will
not respond to Indian surgical strikes.

General Kiyani is said to have responded with showing Mullen a
photograph of an IAF Mirage-2000 locked by Pakistan Air Forces' F-16
taken on December 13th. `Next time, we'll bring it down', Mullen was

To make sure the message was loud and clear, Pakistan Air Force jets
started patrolling the skies in hot mode and a red-alert was issued
througout the country.

Failing to get that guarantee, the chance of an Indian strike was
reduced significantly. For them it was never about a full war. A few
surgical strikes on pre-agreed locations would have been enough to
relieve some of the pressure the Indian Government faces
domestically. Pakistan Army on the other hand made it clear that any
action from India would be taken as a declaration of war, and the
response would be swift and decisive.

India faces humiliation now on the diplomatic front having failed to
achieve anything from this standoff.

In its attempts to isolate Pakistan by building what it saw as a
definitive case, it is India that stands alone on the diplomatic
front and is left with begging the Iranians and Chinese to put
pressure on Pakistan.

We can now expect an intense and sustained terrorism campaign in
Pakistani cities in an attempt to destabilize the country along
ethnic / sectarian lines - New Delhi's time-tested method.

On the diplomatic front India will be lobbying hard to have the ISI
(and Pakistan Army) declared as terrorist organisations.

We can also not rule out another false flag attack in the next few

Pakistan needs to stay united.

Its not over yet.

http://pakistankakh udahafiz. wordpress. com/2008/ 12/28/india- defeated-
in-the-first- round/

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