Thursday, February 19, 2015

Science, Mind, and Limits of Understanding

The Science and Faith Foundation (STOQ), The Vatican, January 2014

By Noam Chomsky

One of the most profound insights into language and mind, I think, was Descartes's recognition of what we may call "the creative aspect of language use": the ordinary use of language is typically innovative without bounds, appropriate to circumstances but not caused by them – a crucial distinction – and can engender thoughts in others that they recognize they could have expressed themselves. Given the intimate relation of language and thought, these are properties of human thought as well. This insight is the primary basis for Descartes's scientific theory of mind and body. There is no sound reason to question its validity, as far as I am aware. Its implications, if valid, are far-reaching, among them what it suggests about the limits of human understanding, as becomes more clear when we consider the place of these reflections in the development of modern science from the earliest days.

It is important to bear in mind that insofar as it was grounded in these terms, Cartesian dualism was a respectable scientific theory, proven wrong (in ways that are often misunderstood), but that is the common fate of respectable theories.

The background is the so-called "mechanical philosophy" – mechanical science in modern terminology. This doctrine, originating with Galileo and his contemporaries, held that the world is a machine, operating by mechanical principles, much like the remarkable devices that were being constructed by skilled artisans of the day and that stimulated the scientific imagination much as computers do today; devices with gears, levers, and other mechanical components, interacting through direct contact with no mysterious forces relating them. The doctrine held that the entire world is similar: it could in principle be constructed by a skilled artisan, and was in fact created by a super-skilled artisan. The doctrine was intended to replace the resort to "occult properties" on the part of the neoscholastics: their appeal to mysterious sympathies and antipathies, to forms flitting through the air as the means of perception, the idea that rocks fall and steam rises because they are moving to their natural place, and similar notions that were mocked by the new science.

The mechanical philosophy provided the very criterion for intelligibility in the sciences. Galileo insisted that theories are intelligible, in his words, only if we can "duplicate [their posits] by means of appropriate artificial devices." The same conception, which became the reigning orthodoxy, was maintained and developed by the other leading figures of the scientific revolution: Descartes, Leibniz, Huygens, Newton, and others.

Today Descartes is remembered mainly for his philosophical reflections, but he was primarily a working scientist and presumably thought of himself that way, as his contemporaries did. His great achievement, he believed, was to have firmly established the mechanical philosophy, to have shown that the world is indeed a machine, that the phenomena of nature could be accounted for in mechanical terms in the sense of the science of the day. But he discovered phenomena that appeared to escape the reach of mechanical science. Primary among them, for Descartes, was the creative aspect of language use, a capacity unique to humans that cannot be duplicated by machines and does not exist among animals, which in fact were a variety of machines, in his conception.

As a serious and honest scientist, Descartes therefore invoked a new principle to accommodate these non-mechanical phenomena, a kind of creative principle. In the substance philosophy of the day, this was a new substance, res cogitans, which stood alongside of res extensa. This dichotomy constitutes the mind-body theory in its scientific version. Then followed further tasks: to explain how the two substances interact and to devise experimental tests to determine whether some other creature has a mind like ours. These tasks were undertaken by Descartes and his followers, notably Géraud de Cordemoy; and in the domain of language, by the logician-grammarians of Port Royal and the tradition of rational and philosophical grammar that succeeded them, not strictly Cartesian but influenced by Cartesian ideas.

All of this is normal science, and like much normal science, it was soon shown to be incorrect. Newton demonstrated that one of the two substances does not exist: res extensa. The properties of matter, Newton showed, escape the bounds of the mechanical philosophy. To account for them it is necessary to resort to interaction without contact. Not surprisingly, Newton was condemned by the great physicists of the day for invoking the despised occult properties of the neo-scholastics. Newton largely agreed. He regarded action at a distance, in his words, as "so great an Absurdity, that I believe no Man who has in philosophical matters a competent Faculty of thinking, can ever fall into it." Newton however argued that these ideas, though absurd, were not "occult" in the traditional despised sense. Nevertheless, by invoking this absurdity, we concede that we do not understand the phenomena of the material world. To quote one standard scholarly source, "By `understand' Newton still meant what his critics meant: `understand in mechanical terms of contact action'."

It is commonly believed that Newton showed that the world is a machine, following mechanical principles, and that we can therefore dismiss "the ghost in the machine," the mind, with appropriate ridicule. The facts are the opposite: Newton exorcised the machine, leaving the ghost intact. The mind-body problem in its scientific form did indeed vanish as unformulable, because one of its terms, body, does not exist in any intelligible form. Newton knew this very well, and so did his great contemporaries.

John Locke wrote that we remain in "incurable ignorance of what we desire to know" about matter and its effects, and no "science of bodies [that provides true explanations is] within our reach." Nevertheless, he continued, he was "convinced by the judicious Mr. Newton's incomparable book, that it is too bold a presumption to limit God's power, in this point, by my narrow conceptions." Though gravitation of matter to matter is "inconceivable to me," nevertheless, as Newton demonstrated, we must recognize that it is within God's power "to put into bodies, powers and ways of operations, above what can be derived from our idea of body, or can be explained by what we know of matter." And thanks to Newton's work, we know that God "has done so." The properties of the material world are "inconceivable to us," but real nevertheless. Newton understood the quandary. For the rest of his life, he sought some way to overcome the absurdity, suggesting various possibilities, but not committing himself to any of them because he could not show how they might work and, as he always insisted, he would not "feign hypotheses" beyond what can be experimentally established.

Replacing the theological with a cognitive framework, David Hume agreed with these conclusions. In his history of England, Hume describes Newton as "the greatest and rarest genius that ever arose for the ornament and instruction of the species." His most spectacular achievement was that while he "seemed to draw the veil from some of the mysteries of nature, he shewed at the same time the imperfections of the mechanical philosophy; and thereby restored [Nature's] ultimate secrets to that obscurity, in which they ever did and ever will remain."

As the import of Newton's discoveries was gradually assimilated in the sciences, the "absurdity' recognized by Newton and his great contemporaries became scientific common sense. The properties of the natural world are inconceivable to us, but that does not matter. The goals of scientific inquiry were implicitly restricted: from the kind of conceivability that was a criterion for true understanding in early modern science from Galileo through Newton and beyond, to something much more limited: intelligibility of theories about the world. This seems to me a step of considerable significance in the history of human thought and inquiry, more so than is generally recognized, though it has been understood by historians of science.

Friedrich Lange, in his classic 19th century history of materialism, observed that we have "so accustomed ourselves to the abstract notion of forces, or rather to a notion hovering in a mystic obscurity between abstraction and concrete comprehension, that we no longer find any difficulty in making one particle of matter act upon another without immediate contact,…through void space without any material link. From such ideas the great mathematicians and physicists of the seventeenth century were far removed. They were all in so far genuine Materialists in the sense of ancient Materialism that they made immediate contact a condition of influence." This transition over time is "one of the most important turning-points in the whole history of Materialism," he continued, depriving the doctrine of much significance, if any at all. "What Newton held to be so great an absurdity that no philosophic thinker could light upon it, is prized by posterity as Newton's great discovery of the harmony of the universe!"

Similar conclusions are commonplace in the history of science. In the mid-twentieth century, Alexander Koyré observed that Newton demonstrated that "a purely materialistic pattern of nature is utterly impossible (and a purely materialistic or mechanistic physics, such as that of Lucretius or of Descartes, is utterly impossible, too)"; his mathematical physics required the "admission into the body of science of incomprehensible and inexplicable `facts' imposed up on us by empiricism," by what is observed and our conclusions from these observations.

With the disappearance of the scientific concept of body (material, physical, etc.), what happens to the "second substance," res cogitans/mind, which was left untouched by Newton's startling discoveries? A plausible answer was suggested by John Locke, also within the reigning theological framework. He wrote that just as God added to matter such inconceivable properties as gravitational attraction, he might also have "superadded" to matter the capacity of thought. In the years that followed, Locke's "God" was reinterpreted as "nature," a move that opened the topic to inquiry. That path was pursued extensively in the years that followed, leading to the conclusion that mental processes are properties of certain kinds of organized matter. Restating the fairly common understanding of the time, Charles Darwin, in his early notebooks, wrote that there is no need to regard thought, "a secretion of the brain," as "more wonderful than gravity, a property of matter" – all inconceivable to us, but that is not a fact about the external world; rather, about our cognitive limitations.

It is of some interest that all of this has been forgotten, and is now being rediscovered. Nobel laureate Francis Crick, famous for the discovery of DNA, formulated what he called the "astonishing hypothesis" that our mental and emotional states are "in fact no more than the behavior of a vast assembly of nerve cells and their associated molecules." In the philosophical literature, this rediscovery has sometimes been regarded as a radical new idea in the study of mind. To cite one prominent source, the radical new idea is "the bold assertion that mental phenomena are entirely natural and caused by the neurophysiological activities of the brain." In fact, the many proposals of this sort reiterate, in virtually the same words, formulations of centuries ago, after the traditional mind-body problem became unformulable with Newton's demolition of the only coherent notion of body (or physical, material, etc.). For example, 18th century chemist/philosopher Joseph Priestley's conclusion that properties "termed mental" reduce to "the organical structure of the brain," stated in different words by Locke, Hume, Darwin, and many others, and almost inescapable, it would seem, after the collapse of the mechanical philosophy that provided the foundations for early modern science, and its criteria of intelligibility.

The last decade of the twentieth century was designated "the Decade of the Brain." In introducing a collection of essays reviewing its results, neuroscientist Vernon Mountcastle formulated the guiding theme of the volume as the thesis of the new biology that "Things mental, indeed minds, are emergent properties of brains, [though] these emergences are…produced by principles that… we do not yet understand" – again reiterating eighteenth century insights in virtually the same words.

The phrase "we do not yet understand," however, should strike a note of caution. We might recall Bertrand Russell's observation in 1927 that chemical laws "cannot at present be reduced to physical laws." That was true, leading eminent scientists, including Nobel laureates, to regard chemistry as no more than a mode of computation that could predict experimental results, but not real science. Soon after Russell wrote, it was discovered that his observation, though correct, was understated. Chemical laws never would be reducible to physical laws, as physics was then understood. After physics underwent radical changes, with the quantum-theoretic revolution, the new physics was unified with a virtually unchanged chemistry, but there was never reduction in the anticipated sense.

There may be some lessons here for neuroscience and philosophy of mind. Contemporary neuroscience is hardly as well-established as physics was a century ago. There are what seem to me to be cogent critiques of its foundational assumptions, notably recent work by cognitive neuroscientists C.R. Gallistel and Adam Philip King. The common slogan that study of mind is neuroscience at an abstract level might turn out to be just as misleading as comparable statements about chemistry and physics ninety years ago. Unification may take place, but that might require radical rethinking of the neurosciences, perhaps guided by computational theories of cognitive processes, as Gallistel and King suggest.

The development of chemistry after Newton also has lessons for neuroscience and cognitive science. The 18th century chemist Joseph Black recommended that "chemical affinity be received as a first principle, which we cannot explain any more than Newton could explain gravitation, and let us defer accounting for the laws of affinity, till we have established such a body of doctrine as he has established concerning the laws of gravitation." The course Black outlined is the one that was actually followed as chemistry proceeded to establish a rich body of doctrine. Historian of chemistry Arnold Thackray observes that the "triumphs" of chemistry were "built on no reductionist foundation but rather achieved in isolation from the newly emerging science of physics." Interestingly, Thackray continues, Newton and his followers did attempt to "pursue the thoroughly Newtonian and reductionist task of uncovering the general mathematical laws which govern all chemical behavior" and to develop a principled science of chemical mechanisms based on physics and its concepts of interactions among "the ultimate permanent particles of matter." But the Newtonian program was undercut by Dalton's "astonishingly successful weight-quantification of chemical units," Thackray continues, shifting "the whole area of philosophical debate among chemists from that of chemical mechanisms (the why? of reaction) to that of chemical units (the what? and how much?)," a theory that "was profoundly antiphysicalist and anti-Newtonian in its rejection of the unity of matter, and its dismissal of short-range forces." Continuing, Thackray writes that "Dalton's ideas were chemically successful. Hence they have enjoyed the homage of history, unlike the philosophically more coherent, if less successful, reductionist schemes of the Newtonians."

Adopting contemporary terminology, we might say that Dalton disregarded the "explanatory gap" between chemistry and physics by ignoring the underlying physics, much as post-Newtonian physicists disregarded the explanatory gap between Newtonian dynamics and the mechanical philosophy by rejecting the latter, and thereby tacitly lowering the goals of science in a highly significant way, as I mentioned.

Contemporary studies of mind are deeply troubled by the "explanatory gap" between the science of mind and neuroscience – in particular, between computational theories of cognition, including language, and neuroscience. I think they would be well-advised to take seriously the history of chemistry. Today's task is to develop a "body of doctrine" to explain what appear to be the critically significant phenomena of language and mind, much as chemists did. It is of course wise to keep the explanatory gap in mind, to seek ultimate unification, and to pursue what seem to be promising steps towards unification, while nevertheless recognizing that as often in the past, unification may not be reduction, but rather revision of what is regarded as the "fundamental discipline," the reduction basis, the brain sciences in this case.

Locke and Hume, and many less-remembered figures of the day, understood that much of the nature of the world is "inconceivable" to us. There were actually two different kinds of reasons for this. For Locke and Hume, the reasons were primarily epistemological. Hume in particular developed the idea that we can only be confident of immediate impressions, of "appearances." Everything else is a mental construction. In particular, and of crucial significance, that is true of identity through time, problems that trace back to the pre-Socratics: the identity of a river or a tree or most importantly a person as they change through time. These are mental constructions; we cannot know whether they are properties of the world, a metaphysical reality. As Hume put the matter, we must maintain "a modest skepticism to a certain degree, and a fair confession of ignorance in subjects, that exceed all human capacity" – which for Hume includes virtually everything beyond appearances. We must "refrain from disquisitions concerning their real nature and operations." It is the imagination that leads us to believe that we experience external continuing objects, including a mind or self. The imagination, furthermore, is "a kind of magical faculty in the soul, which…is inexplicable by the utmost efforts of human understanding," so Hume argued.

A different kind of reason why the nature of the world is inconceivable to us was provided by "the judicious Mr. Newton," who apparently was not interested in the epistemological problems that vexed Locke and Hume. Newton scholar Andrew Janiak concludes that Newton regarded such global skepticism as "irrelevant – he takes the possibility of our knowledge of nature for granted." For Newton, "the primary epistemic questions confronting us are raised by physical theory itself." Locke and Hume, as I mentioned, took quite seriously the new science-based skepticism that resulted from Newton's demolition of the mechanical philosophy, which had provided the very criterion of intelligibility for the scientific revolution. That is why Hume lauded Newton for having "restored [Nature's] ultimate secrets to that obscurity, in which they ever did and ever will remain."

For these quite different kinds of reasons, the great figures of the scientific revolution and the Enlightenment believed that there are phenomena that fall beyond human understanding. Their reasoning seems to me substantial, and not easily dismissed. But contemporary doctrine is quite different. The conclusions are regarded as a dangerous heresy. They are derided as "the new mysterianism," a term coined by philosopher Owen Flanagan, who defined it as "a postmodern position designed to drive a railroad spike through the heart of scientism." Flanagan is referring specifically to explanation of consciousness, but the same concerns hold of mental processes in general.

The "new mysterianism" is compared today with the "old mysterianism," Cartesian dualism, its fate typically misunderstood. To repeat, Cartesian dualism was a perfectly respectable scientific doctrine, disproven by Newton, who exorcised the machine, leaving the ghost intact, contrary to what is commonly believed.

The "new mysterianism," I believe, is misnamed. It should be called "truism" -- at least, for anyone who accepts the major findings of modern biology, which regards humans as part of the organic world. If so, then they will be like all other organisms in having a genetic endowment that enables them to grow and develop to their mature form. By simple logic, the endowment that makes this possible also excludes other paths of development. The endowment that yields scope also establishes limits. What enables us to grow legs and arms, and a mammalian visual system, prevents us from growing wings and having an insect visual system.

All of this is indeed truism, and for non-mystics, the same should be expected to hold for cognitive capacities. We understand this well for other organisms. Thus we are not surprised to discover that rats are unable to run prime number mazes no matter how much training they receive; they simply lack the relevant concept in their cognitive repertoire. By the same token, we are not surprised that humans are incapable of the remarkable navigational feats of ants and bees; we simply lack the cognitive capacities, though we can sometimes duplicate their feats with sophisticated instruments. The truisms extend to higher mental faculties. For such reasons, we should, I think, be prepared to join the distinguished company of Newton, Locke, Hume and other dedicated mysterians.

For accuracy, we should qualify the concept of "mysteries" by relativizing it to organisms. Thus what is a mystery for rats might not be a mystery for humans, and what is a mystery for humans is instinctive for ants and bees.

Dismissal of mysterianism seems to me one illustration of a widespread form of dualism, a kind of epistemological and methodological dualism, which tacitly adopts the principle that study of mental aspects of the world should proceed in some fundamentally different way from study of what are considered physical aspects of the world, rejecting what are regarded as truisms outside the domain of mental processes. This new dualism seems to me truly pernicious, unlike Cartesian dualism, which was respectable science. The new methodological dualism, in contrast, seems to me to have nothing to recommend it.

Far from bewailing the existence of mysteries-for-humans, we should be extremely grateful for it. With no limits to growth and development, our cognitive capacities would also have no scope. Similarly, if the genetic endowment imposed no constraints on growth and development of an organism it could become only a shapeless amoeboid creature, reflecting accidents of an unanalyzed environment, each quite unlike the next. Classical aesthetic theory recognized the same relation between scope and limits. Without rules, there can be no genuinely creative activity, even when creative work challenges and revises prevailing rules.

Contemporary rejection of mysterianism – that is, truism – is quite widespread. One recent example that has received considerable attention is an interesting and informative book by physicist David Deutsch. He writes that potential progress is "unbounded" as a result of the achievements of the Enlightenment and early modern science, which directed science to the search for best explanations. As philosopher/physicist David Albert expounds his thesis, "with the introduction of that particular habit of concocting and evaluating new hypotheses, there was a sense in which we could do anything. The capacities of a community that has mastered that method to survive, and to learn, and to remake the world according to its inclinations, are (in the long run) literally, mathematically, infinite."

The quest for better explanations may well indeed be infinite, but infinite is of course not the same as limitless. English is infinite, but doesn't include Greek. The integers are an infinite set, but do not include the reals. I cannot discern any argument here that addresses the concerns and conclusions of the great mysterians of the scientific revolution and the Enlightenment.

We are left with a serious and challenging scientific inquiry: to determine the innate components of our cognitive nature in language, perception, concept formation, reflection, inference, theory construction, artistic creation, and all other domains of life, including the most ordinary ones. By pursuing this task we may hope to determine the scope and limits of human understanding, while recognizing that some differently structured intelligence might regard human mysteries as simple problems and wonder that we cannot find the answers, much as we can observe the inability of rats to run prime number mazes because of the very design of their cognitive nature.

There is no contradiction in supposing that we might be able to probe the limits of human understanding and try to sharpen the boundary between problems that fall within our cognitive range and mysteries that do not. There are possible experimental inquiries. Another approach would be to take seriously the concerns of the great figures of the early scientific revolution and the Enlightenment: to pay attention to what they found "inconceivable," and particularly their reasons. The "mechanical philosophy" itself has a claim to be an approximation to common sense understanding of the world, a suggestion that might be clarified by experimental inquiry. Despite much sophisticated commentary, it is also hard to escape the force of Descartes's conviction that free will is "the noblest thing" we have, that "there is nothing we comprehend more evidently and more perfectly" and that "it would be absurd" to doubt something that "we comprehend intimately, and experience within ourselves" merely because it is "by its nature incomprehensible to us," if indeed we do not "have intelligence enough" to understand the workings of mind, as he speculated. Concepts of determinacy and randomness fall within our intellectual grasp. But it might turn out that "free actions of men" cannot be accommodated in these terms, including the creative aspect of language and thought. If so, that might be a matter of cognitive limitations – which would not preclude an intelligible theory of such actions, far as this is from today's scientific understanding.

Honesty should lead us to concede, I think, that we understand little more today about these matters than the Spanish physician-philosopher Juan Huarte did 500 years ago when he distinguished the kind of intelligence humans shared with animals from the higher grade that humans alone possess and is illustrated in the creative use of language, and proceeding beyond that, from the still higher grade illustrated in true artistic and scientific creativity. Nor do we even know whether these are questions that lie within the scope of human understanding, or whether they fall among what Hume took to be Nature's ultimate secrets, consigned to "that obscurity in which they ever did and ever will remain."


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Saturday, March 8, 2014

Article for Publication - Are We Prepared for Counter Terrorism

Article for Publication

March 6th, 2014

 

ARE WE PREPARED FOR

COUNTER TERRORISM

 

By

 

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)

 

"I say with full responsibility that Islamabad is a safe and secure city", so declared the Interior Minister Ch. Nisar Ali Khan in a press conference and ironically, only three days later the terrorists devastated his hollow claim by striking at the District Courts Complex Islamabad killing at least 11 people, including an Additional Sessions Judge Rafaqat Ahmed Awan and a 25 year old young lady lawyer Fiza apart from wounding 25 others some seriously with three lawyers also critically wounded amongst them .

The one sided gun and grenade carnage lasted for nearly 45 minutes and the killers were at leisure to enter any office, court room or chamber – at places even asking the hapless victims to recite Kalima before killing them!  Apparently no serious effort seems to have been made by the Police to stop the killing spree of the terrorists who made their escape good in the vehicles they had come to the courts. Strangely, there are conflicting reports about the exact number of the terrorists that played havoc at the courts.  This is what the Honourable Interior Minister had to say of the incident in the National Assembly. He said  that there was a huge difference between the intelligence provided by intelligence agencies and the police.

According to the police two men entered a side lane of the district courts where they first fired into the air and then shot everyone who came their way. On the other hand, the intelligence agencies informed him that three men entered the premises; all had Kalashnikovs while the two of them wore suicide jackets also who blew themselves up while the third one ran away. However, according to an initial report of the police and intelligence agencies there were four armed men who entered the courts complex and two suicide attacks took place. Firing broke out after the blasts and the other two attackers fled the scene.  What a confusion and what an intelligence shemozzle ?!!   A force of 60 policemen are said to be deputed for the security of the Islamabad courts, out of which  47 were present on the day of occurrence. However, only one is reported to have fired at the terrorists and that too without any effect. Most others are alleged to have had defective w! eapons. Some policemen confided to the news reporters that they had orders not to open fire at their own.  There were no CCTV cameras around, which had been incidentally ordered by the previous CJ Iftikhar Ch. about a year ago to cover all the courts premises.  Surprisingly, they have been installed so promptly within two days of the incident!  Where have these cameras come from?  Anybody's guess!  One thing is for sure that these could not been possibly procured and installed too at such a short notice unless all government procurement rules, regulations and procedures were flouted. The Secretary Interior informed the apex court that a police contingent was rushed to the scene of occurrence in 7 to 10 minutes from the nearby Margalla Police Station, which was scoffed at by the honourable court with the  remarks that had they arrived that quickly the terrorists could not have done what they did.

 

Now the question arises that were these 60 policemen or the contingent rushed from the nearby police station trained in any way to counter a well planned and executed terrorist suicidal attack or were they simply there just as a "show of force"?

Were they to act (react) individually on their own or had they been organized and divided into various groups, sections and platoons etc. each with a specific task assigned to it? Did they have their specific 'Stations' to occupy during the operation, such as some vantage or high points affording good visibility and cover from terrorist fire or were they just to run around in the open exposing themselves fully to the enemy fire?  Did they have any means of communications (wireless sets, Walkie/Talkies etc.) between themselves for effective Command and Control? Did they have any body armour (bullet proof vests) for their protection?  Was there ever any exercise or rehearsal carried out against a mock terrorist attack? In short did they know what to do and how to do it?  If not, then how do we expect such an untrained and ill-equipped force to counter any terrorist attack effectively? They will simply act like the cannon fodder and for that only the! ir senior officers are to be blamed. There is an old saying , "The greatest disloyalty a commander can do to his men is to launch them into a battle without proper training for it".

 

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)

NIC# 37405- 9122353-5

  

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)
30 Westridge 1
Rawalpindi 46000
Pakistan
Tel: (051) 5158033
E.mail: jafri@rifiela.com

--
Shahzad Afzal
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Zionist Extremists Have Stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque Compound


 by: Ahmed Hammuda



Zionist Extremists Have Stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque Compound






"Glorified be He (Allāh) Who took His slave (Muhammad salla Allāhu 'alayh wasalam) for a journey by night from al-Masjid al-Harām (at Makkah) to Al-Masjid-al-Aqsa (in Jerusalem), the neighbourhood whereof We have blessed, in order that We might show him of Our signs. Verily, He is the All-Hearer, the All-Seer."[1]

Few of us stop to ponder over the circumstance this blessed chapter was revealed in and the implications of the Prophet's great journey (salla Allāhu 'alayh wasalam). This chapter, having been revealed in Makkah contains topics that are inherent to Islamic 'Aqīdah, central to our focus and concern. The gathering of every Prophet in al-Aqsa Mosque, led by the final Messenger (salla Allāhu 'alayhi wasalam) indicates his position as their great Imam and leader[2]. It signifies the relationship between their messages and emphasises the final divine designation of the land to the monotheistic nation of the descendant of Ibrahim ('alayhi al-Salām): Muhammad, (salla Allāhu 'alayh wasalam)[3].

It therefore becomes extremely painful that we need to discuss the identity of an area that exemplifies the very core of Islamic belief. This is more and more typically becoming the Israeli Parliament's main point of debate in its quarters; extending its authority in Jerusalem to encompass al-Aqsa Sanctuary in replacement of Jordan. The latest episode of this Zionist fanaticism was led by Moshe Feiglin, a Jewish extremist member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far right Likud party. Unsatisfied with the current level of Israeli annexation of Palestinian land, Feiglin expressed resentment at why Israeli fanatics have no access to the sanctuary and are barred from unfurling on it the Israeli flag[4].

According to Feiglin: "Al-Aqsa belongs to the Jews and the Arabs should go back to Saudi Arabia where they belong. The golden dome is part of a Jewish temple and does not belong to the Muslims."[5] These claims have already been proven fictitious from religious, historical and geological grounds. Israeli and international archaeologists have been excavating tunnels under the Aqsa sanctuary extensively since 1967, confirming through rigorous exploration that claims to a Jewish temple in that area are baseless[6]. These fabrications have nonetheless led to significant damage to the structural integrity of al-Aqsa mosque, causing walls to crack, floors to cave in and others to completely give way[7]. Demands for sovereignty over the Mosque, however, are not purely driven by the dreams of 'extremist Zionists', they are the stepping stone to something more catastrophic. These demands should never be deemed in isolation of the surrounding, concurrent events in the Muslim world. As the Muslim world continues in turmoil Israel is pushing forth in the dark, realising its ambitions of uprooting and replacing what remains of Islamic endowments in the holy land. These simultaneous events have largely diverted the attention of Muslims around the world, allowing the Zionist regime to double its rate of settlement expansion in 2013 while demolishing 390 Palestinian homes in the West bank in the same year[8], 50% more than in the previous year amidst no international resistance[9].

On Wednesday the 19th of February, extremist Moshe Feiglin "ascended to the Temple Mount" and "toured all corners",[10] provocatively offering a 'prayer' in claim of al-Aqsa sanctuary and by full sanction of Israeli police. In essence, Feiglin's action while a member of the Israeli Knesset does not differ to when Ariel Sharon desecrated the holy sanctuary by intruding into it surrounded by hundreds of Israeli police. This symbolic attempt at declaring ownership to the sanctuary sparked the second Intifada, claiming around 5,500 Palestinian lives[11]. More recently, repercussions to Israel's debate on formal ownership has been lent dangerously less attention, besides the Jordanian Parliament's useless unanimity on expelling the Israeli Ambassador[12]. The Zionist regime, in fact, effectively controls access to the Mosque and persists in banning anyone under the age of 50 from entering it, all the while radical Jewish settlers storm the Mosque unimpeded[13].

The almost unconscious 'Palestinian President' Mahmoud Abbas and his negotiation team continue to demonstrate the pinnacle of naivety and absurdness in continuing negotiations, supposedly attempting to secure East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine as opposed to Beit Hanina[14]. Geopolitically, these negotiations are foolish as the Palestinian Authority is frail and ineffectual on the ground. As such, its presence as the main 'authority' is to the betterment of Israel. Evidence of this is its threats to disband itself if Israel continues in its settlement expansion in East Jerusalem (imagine if Hamas did the same). With more than 53,000 settlement homes in East Jerusalem[15], prospects for a state through negotiation have been eradicated. Religiously, Jerusalem being an endowment renders any negotiation over its ownership void and as thus "bargaining over Palestine means bargaining over our faith."[16]

The Zionist entity is actively utilising the events across the Muslim world to swiftly achieve its expansionist goals. Out of the spotlight, it is pressing forward in an attempt to uproot al-Aqsa while the Palestinians struggle to defend this collective endowment all alone. Israel is not oblivious to the impending danger in the Middle-East and understands that bringing its invasion to an end is in the scope and objective of some of its neighbours. Nonetheless, allowing oneself to be preoccupied by the means while disregarding the objective (the end) will lend Israel time to cause the objective to become more and more unreachable. Indeed the destruction of al-Aqsa, God forbid, is something that will cause the zeal and energy of many Muslims to fetter, even in making progress in the means. Keeping awareness and full recognition of the position of al-Aqsa, while embodying it like one embodies elements of his or her creed is vital for every Muslim. Every effort should be expended in defending it, emphasising its sanctity and embedding its status in the heart in this challenging time.

 

For more of the latest news surrounding al-Aqsa please visit http://foa.org.uk/

Notes:

[1] Al-Qur'ān 17:1

[2] Tafsīr b. Kathīr, Sūrat al-Isrā'

[3] Sayyid Qutub, in the Shade of the Qur'ān, Sūrat al-Isrā'

[4] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/mounting-tension-israels-knesset-debates-proposal-to-enforce-its-sovereignty-at-alaqsa-mosque–a-move-seen-as-an-extreme-provocation-to-muslims-worldwide-9155575.html

[5] http://www.almoslim.net/node/203214

[6] http://www.jewsnews.co.il/2013/06/28/al-aqsa-mosque-foundation-declares-all-signs-pointing-to-jewish-temple-presence-are-lies/

[7] The Holy al-Aqsa Sanctuary under Threat – Friends of al-Aqsa. Available here:http://foa.org.uk/uploads/al-aqsa-report2013.pdf

[8] http://electronicresistance.net/palestine-news/israel-demolished-390-palestinian-homes-in-2013-un/

[9] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/03/israel-doubles-west-bank-outpost-construction-201433143850913282.html

[10] http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/177628#.UxTdZs4fyH8

[11] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/mounting-tension-israels-knesset-debates-proposal-to-enforce-its-sovereignty-at-alaqsa-mosque–a-move-seen-as-an-extreme-provocation-to-muslims-worldwide-9155575.html

[12] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/jordan-expels-israeli-ambassador-jerusalem-holy-site-row

[13] http://en.ammonnews.net/article.aspx?articleno=24487#.UxTlsc4fyH8

[14] http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=678057

[15] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/middle-east/10024-disbanding-the-palestinian-authority

[16] http://www.pij.org/details.php?id=646 quote by Muhammad Hamid Abu al-Nasr

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Obama Worse Than Reagan

Nukes Now

by STEVE BREYMAN

Heads-up, veterans of the nuclear freeze movement in the US, the anti-Euromissile campaigns in Western Europe, and the various anti-nuclear weapons efforts in New Zealand, Australia and Japan. Incoming.

We spent much of the eighties resisting Ronald Reagan's new Cold War, and his new nuclear weapons of all shapes and sizes. We pushed back against his giant 'defense' budgets and countered his harrowing rhetoric. We knew Star Wars was a scam, and the MX missile a danger. We grimaced at his appointments to key policymaking positions, and scoffed at his insincere arms control efforts.

In the end, we prevailed (after a sort). We get much of the credit for preventing planetary incineration that seemed frighteningly close at the time (Gorbachev deserves some too). Professional activists, Plowshares heroes, and a handful of stalwart others stayed in the anti-nuclear weapons movement trenches. Although nukes were not abolished with the end of the Cold War, most of the rest of us nonetheless moved on to fight other evils, and to work on one or more better world construction projects.

It's time to return. President Obama released his FY 2015 budget on Tuesday, March 4. Ready for this? It asks for considerably more money (in constant dollars) for nuclear weapons maintenance, design and production than Reagan spent in 1985, the historical peak of spending on nukes: $8.608 billion dollars, not counting administrative costs (see graph below). The Los Alamos Study Group crunched the numbers for us.
breymangraf
Next year's request tops this year's by 7%. Should the President's new Opportunity, Growth and Security Initiative be approved, yet $504 million more would be available for warhead spending. The OGSI is $56 billion over and above the spending agreed to in the December 2013 two-year budget (unlikely to pass given that it's an election year, would be paid for by increased taxes on the retirement funds of the rich, and reduced spending in politically dicey areas like crop insurance).

Increased lucre for the nuclear weapons complex maintains Obama's inconsistency on the Bomb. He wrote his senior thesis at Columbia on the arms race and the nuclear freeze campaign. Two months after his first inauguration, he uttered these words in Prague: "So today, I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons."

The Pentagon's 2010 Nuclear Posture Review promised to avoid "new military missions or . . . new military capabilities" for nuclear weapons (don't laugh, you'd be surprised how imaginative those guys can be). 2011 was even better: Obama signed the New START Treaty. It limits the number of operationally deployed nuclear warheads to 1550, a 30% decrease from the previous START Treaty, signed in 2002. New START also lowered limits on the number of launch platforms — ICBMs, ballistic missile launching subs, and nuke-equipped bombers.

At the same time, his State Department refuses—under first Hilary Clinton and now John Kerry—to present the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to the Senate for ratification out of timidity over expected resistance (never mind that the US has essentially figured out ways to circumvent the Treaty's spirit if not letter; the CTB was once the 'holy grail' for arms control and disarmament advoates).

That same State Department refrains—under both Hilary Clinton and John Kerry—from getting tough with Pakistan over its years-long obstruction of United Nations-sponsored negotiations over a global ban on the stuff needed to make bombs. (Pakistan is the country building them faster than any other; how about: 'we'll ground the killer drones in exchange for a fissile material cut-off?'). And Obama now wants to outspend Reagan on nuclear weapons maintenance, design and production.

Winding down nuclear weapons spending, and eventually abolishing the things (for which no negotiations are underway) has been the right thing to do since the first bomb exploded in the New Mexico desert in 1945. State Department support for the coup in Ukraine and the resultant saber rattling (echoes of August 1914?) make it as urgent as ever.

Steve Breyman was 2011-12 William C. Foster Visiting Scholar Fellow in the Euro-Atlantic Security Affairs Office of the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance at the US Department of State where he worked fruitlessly on reforming nuclear weapons policy. He is author of Movement Genesis: Social Movement Theory and the West German Peace Movement and Why Movements Matter: The West German Peace Movement and US Arms Control Policy. Reach him at breyms@rpi.edu


--
Shahzad Afzal

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Fwd: Syria


 

The White House, Washington

 

Good evening --

I just addressed the nation about the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

Over the past two years, what began as a series of peaceful protests against the repressive regime of Bashar al-Assad has turned into a brutal civil war in Syria. Over 100,000 people have been killed.

In that time, we have worked with friends and allies to provide humanitarian support for the Syrian people, to help the moderate opposition within Syria, and to shape a political settlement. But we have resisted calls for military action because we cannot resolve someone else's civil war through force.

The situation profoundly changed in the early hours of August 21, when more than 1,000 Syrians -- including hundreds of children -- were killed by chemical weapons launched by the Assad government.

What happened to those people -- to those children -- is not only a violation of international law -- it's also a danger to our security. Here's why:

If we fail to act, the Assad regime will see no reason to stop using chemical weapons. As the ban against these deadly weapons erodes, other tyrants and authoritarian regimes will have no reason to think twice about acquiring poison gases and using them. Over time, our troops could face the prospect of chemical warfare on the battlefield. It could be easier for terrorist organizations to obtain these weapons and use them to attack civilians. If fighting spills beyond Syria's borders, these weapons could threaten our allies in the region.

So after careful deliberation, I determined that it is in the national security interests of the United States to respond to the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons through a targeted military strike. The purpose of this strike would be to deter Assad from using chemical weapons, to degrade his regime's ability to use them, and make clear to the world that we will not tolerate their use.

Though I possess the authority to order these strikes, in the absence of a direct threat to our security I believe that Congress should consider my decision to act. Our democracy is stronger when the President acts with the support of Congress -- and when Americans stand together as one people.

Over the last few days, as this debate unfolds, we've already begun to see signs that the credible threat of U.S. military action may produce a diplomatic breakthrough. The Russian government has indicated a willingness to join with the international community in pushing Assad to give up his chemical weapons and the Assad regime has now admitted that it has these weapons, and even said they'd join the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibits their use.

It's too early to tell whether this offer will succeed, and any agreement must verify that the Assad regime keeps its commitments. But this initiative has the potential to remove the threat of chemical weapons without the use of force.

That's why I've asked the leaders of Congress to postpone a vote to authorize the use of force while we pursue this diplomatic path. I'm sending Secretary of State John Kerry to meet his Russian counterpart on Thursday, and I will continue my own discussions with President Putin. At the same time, we'll work with two of our closest allies -- France and the United Kingdom -- to put forward a resolution at the U.N. Security Council requiring Assad to give up his chemical weapons, and to ultimately destroy them under international control.

Meanwhile, I've ordered our military to maintain their current posture to keep the pressure on Assad, and to be in a position to respond if diplomacy fails. And tonight, I give thanks again to our military and their families for their incredible strength and sacrifices.

As we continue this debate -- in Washington, and across the country -- I need your help to make sure that everyone understands the factors at play.

Please share this message with others to make sure they know where I stand, and how they can stay up to date on this situation. Anyone can find the latest information about the situation in Syria, including video of tonight's address, here:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/syria

Thank you,

President Barack Obama

 

This email was sent to shahzadafzal85@gmail.com.
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The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 




--
Shahzad Afzal
http://www.pakistanprobe.com/


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Saturday, August 18, 2012

HPC Are The US Govt And The Big Banks Quietly Preparing For An Imminent Financial Collapse?


http://www.pakalertpress.com/2012/08/14/are-the-government-and-the-big-banks-quietly-preparing-for-an-imminent-financial-collapse/


Are The Government And The Big Banks Quietly Preparing For An Imminent Financial Collapse?

August 14, 2012

Something really strange appears to be happening.  All over the globe, governments and big banks are acting as if they are anticipating an imminent financial collapse.  Unfortunately, we are not privy to the quiet conversations that are taking place in corporate boardrooms and in the halls of power in places such as Washington D.C. and London, so all we can do is try to make sense of all the clues that are all around us.  Of course it is completely possible to misinterpret these clues, but sticking our heads in the sand is not going to do any good either.  

Last week, it was revealed that the U.S. government has been secretly directing five of the biggest banks in America "to develop plans for staving off collapse" for the last two years.  By itself, that wouldn't be that big of a deal.  But when you add that piece to the dozens of other clues of imminent financial collapse, a very troubling picture begins to emerge.  Over the past 12 months, hundreds of banking executives have been resigning, corporate insiders have been selling off enormous amounts of stock, and I have been personally told that a significant number of Wall Street bankers have been shopping for "prepper properties" in rural communities this summer.  

Meanwhile, there have been reports that the U.S. government has been stockpiling food and ammunition, and Barack Obama has been signing a whole bunch of executive orders that would potentially be implemented in the event of a major meltdown of society.  So what does all of this mean?  It could mean something or it could mean nothing.  What we do know is that a financial collapse is coming at some point.  Over the past 40 years, the total amount of all debt in the United States has grown from about 2 trillion dollars to nearly 55 trillion dollars.  That is a recipe for financial armageddon, and it is inevitable that this gigantic bubble of debt is going to burst at some point.

In normal times, the U.S. government does not tell major banks to "develop plans for staving off collapse". But according to a recent Reuters article, that is apparently exactly what has been happening….

U.S. regulators directed five of the country's biggest banks, including Bank of America Corp and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

The two-year-old program, which has been largely secret until now, is in addition to the "living wills" the banks crafted to help regulators dismantle them if they actually do fail. It shows how hard regulators are working to ensure that banks have plans for worst-case scenarios and can act rationally in times of distress.

Does it seem odd to anyone else that only five really big banks got such a warning? And why keep it secret from the American public? Does the federal government actually expect such a collapse to happen? If federal officials do expect a financial collapse to occur, they would not be the only ones.  An increasing number of very respected economists are speaking about the coming financial collapse as if there is a certain inevitability about it.

For example, check out the following quote from a recent Money Morning article….

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated    into a "death spiral," as he told CNBC. And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."

A former World Bank executive is warning that our civilization might not survive what is coming? That is pretty chilling. Economist Nouriel Roubini says that he believes that the coming crisis will be even worse than 2008….

"Worse because like 2008 you will have an economic and financial crisis but unlike 2008, you are running out of policy bullets. In 2008, you could cut rates; do QE1, QE2; you could do fiscal stimulus; you could backstop/ringfence/guarantee banks and everybody else. Today, more QEs are becoming less and less effective because the problems are of solvency not liquidity. Fiscal deficits are already so large and you cannot bail out the banks because 1) there is a political opposition to it; and 2) governments are near-insolvent – they cannot bailout themselves let alone their banks. The problem is that we are running out of policy rabbits to pull out of the hat!"

Across the pond, many European officials are echoing similar sentiments. What Nigel Farage told King World News the other day is very ominous….

Today MEP (Member European Parliament) Nigel Farage spoke with King World News about what he described as the possibility of, "a really dramatic banking collapse."  Farage also warned that central planners want to enslave and imprison people inside of a 'New Order,' and he described the situation as "horrifying."

The situation in Europe continues to get worse and worse.  The authorities in Europe have come out with "solution" after "solution", and yet unemployment continues to skyrocket and economic conditions in the EU have deteriorated very steadily over the past 12 months. If all of that was not bad enough, there are an increasing number of indications that Germany is actually considering leaving the euro. 

Needless to say, that would be a complete and total disaster for the rest of the eurozone. Of course there are any number of ways that the financial crisis in Europe could potentially play out. But all of the realistic scenarios would be very bad for the global economy. Meanwhile, our resources are dwindling, war in the Middle East could erupt at any moment and our planet is becoming increasingly unstable.  The following is from a recent article by Paul B. Farrell on Marketwatch.com….

Fasten your seat belts, soon we'll all be shocked out of denial. Some unpredictable black swan. A global wake-up call will trigger the Pentagon's prediction in Fortune a decade ago at the launch of the Iraq War: "By 2020 … an ancient pattern of desperate, all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies is emerging … warfare defining human life."

It is almost as if a "perfect storm" is brewing. Of course the historic drought that is ravaging food production in the United States this summer is not helping matters either.  Another summer or two like this one and we could be looking at a return of Dust Bowl conditions. Anyone that is watching what is going on in the world and is not concerned at all about what is happening is simply being delusional. Recently, a "team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts" examined the current state of the global economic system and the conclusions they reached were absolutely staggering….

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.

"And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything."

Hmmmm – it sounds like they have been reading The Economic Collapse Blog. The truth is that a massive worldwide financial collapse is coming. It is inevitable, and it is going to be extremely painful.

#TheEconomicCollapse



http://thetruthwins.com/

Guess who is going to need a bailout right after Spain?  The Italian economy is the 8th largest economy on the entire planet and right now it is being absolutely overwhelmed by a tsunami of debt.  In an attempt to address this problem, Italy is going down the exact same path that Greece, Portugal and Spain have gone.  And so far, we are seeing the exact same results that we have seen in those other countries.  Austerity causes economic growth to slow down, and that causes unemployment to soar.  When unemployment rises, tax revenues go down and you end up missing your original deficit reduction targets so you have to implement even more austerity measures.  It is a vicious cycle that we have seen play out again and again in Greece over the past five years.  But unlike Greece, Italy is way too large to be completely bailed out.  The truth is that there are only 7 economies on the entire globe that are larger than the Italian economy.  Plus, keep in mind that the 12th largest economy in the world, Spain, is also on the verge of formally requesting a bailout.  (Read More....)



A nightmarish global food crisis is coming.  Even though about a billion people around the planet currently live on the edge of starvation, those of us that live in the wealthy western nations still have more than enough food to eat.  But it will not always be that way.  With each passing year, the global population goes up while global supplies of fresh water go down.  And you need lots of water to grow food.  The "breadbaskets" of the world, the United States and Russia, are currently experiencing horrible droughts that scientists tell us are part of a long-term trend.  In fact, some are projecting that the United States will soon see the return of Dust Bowl conditions.  So what will the rest of the world do when the topsoil in the heartland of the biggest food exporter on the globe dries up and blows away?  Just remember what happened back in 2007 and 2008.  Food prices rose rapidly and it sparked massive food riots in more than two dozen different nations.  So what will things look like when there is a very serious shortage of food around the globe?

On Thursday, the price of corn hit another brand new record high of $8.28 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Unfortunately, (Read More....)



One economic theory states that we can never have deflation in a long term economy. For prices to deflate would be contrary to the built-in safeguards put forth by the government agencies. The main cause of a deflation would have to be a massive withdrawal of money from the banking system. As long as the money is insured, that is unlikely to happen. I tend to agree with that theory. It is unlikely that prices will go down long term as long as people have confidence in having their money in the banks.

One of the safeguards put into effect in the 30s depended on the negotiation of wages. No one group of wages, but all American Manufacturing was based on Union wages. Inflation and wage increases went hand in hand all through the 50s and to some extent through the 60s. Nonunion people normally could do a "me too" on the backs of Union worker's negotiations. If a Union member negotiated a contract for $10 an hour plus benefits, companies tended to pay the nonunion worker just a little less. But to remain competitive in attracting people, they had to match the wages fairly close.

In that kind of atmosphere it was natural for more and more money to be printed as wages increased at a rate of at least 4.5 percent per year. You can go to almost any book on Finance and Appraisal in the Real Estate Industry for a practical guide (Read More....)

--
Shahzad Afzal
http://www.pakistanprobe.com/



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Tuesday, August 14, 2012

America's first choice - Iran or Pakistan

America's first choice - Iran or Pakistan
Asif Haroon Raja
America and its allies are persecuting and bleeding the Muslims for over a decade. Notwithstanding its imperialistic designs and penchant to harm Muslims interests, the Muslim states themselves are also responsible for the sorry state of affairs within the Muslim world. Notwithstanding all out support of the US and the west to Israel in its creation and build up, Arab states are also responsible for turning tiny sized Israel into most powerful state of the region because of their disunity and submissiveness to USA. Palestinian issue has lingered on for 65 years because of the deplorable state of affairs within the Arab world. Mullah Omar's regime wouldn't have crumbled that easily had Pakistan not ditched its neighbor and sided with the invader. The whole world including the Muslim world backed the invasion. Saddam Hussain's regime was brought down in May 2003 because the Shias and Kurds in Iraq had joined hands with the aggressors and all the Arab neighbors had supported the aggressors while Iran looked the other way.
Uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt named as Arab Spring were instigated by CIA-Mosad and executed by Qatar to reshape Middle East and muster wider acceptance for apartheid Israel. It is a different matter that later events spun out of control of the schemers and Islamic parties took over. Few hundred anti-Qaddafi runaway Libyans residing in USA aided by CIA and NATO airpower ousted Qaddafi from power and killed him in 2011. Syria is currently in the firing line and the opponents of President Assad misled by foreign powers are striving hard to bring down his regime. So far 25000 Syrians have died in the infighting but Assad with 12% Alawite minority is defiant and wants to continue ruling 83% Sunni population. But for Russian and Chinese intervention, by now the US would have obtained UNSC sanction to authorize NATO to step in and assist the opposing forces in Syria and then form a government of its choice.
Two other Muslim countries, Iran and Pakistan in the firing line are awaiting their turn. Lot of groundwork has already been done by USA and its allies to soften up the targeted countries from within through covert war. Reformist Party in Iran is sponsored by USA but despite receiving millions of dollars during the last two elections, it couldn't defeat Ahmadinejad run ruling party which has struck deep roots among the masses because of its anti-US and anti-Israel stance. Although Iran has been sufficiently isolated and put under harsh sanctions and now attempts are being made to block its oil exports so as to force it to abandon its nuclear program perceived to be geared towards making a nuclear bomb, Ahmadinejad is continuing to defy US-EU blackmailing tactics. Oil, geo-strategic location, effective leadership and resilient youth are assets which enable Iran to withstand external pressures. It is in a position to choke Strait of Hormuz through which one-third of oil flows to Europe. It has powerful guided missiles that can hit Israel with ease. 
The situation in Pakistan is not so bright. One of the best ways to break a nation is to install a corrupt and incompetent government. The US has successfully achieved this objective in Pakistan. The present government installed by USA in 2008 is at the beck and call of Washington. The sole interest of the NRO cleansed rulers is to prolong their stay in power and to keep filling their coffers with ill-gotten money. For the attainment of these selfish interests they have sold their souls and put national interests at stake. They are fighting the judiciary tooth and nail to preserve their looted wealth. They have damaged and humiliated Pakistan in a way which neither India nor Israel could do militarily. Their massive corruption, nepotism and lavish lifestyle have devastated the economic, ideological, industrial, social and political structure of Pakistan. Above all, there is no dearth of fifth columnists and snakes in the grass.
Regrettably, the US has found out the solution to destroy a Muslim atomic power through corrupt democracy in Pakistan. Within four years we stand nowhere. The US and India under the garb of friendship have been ruthlessly bashing Pakistan on the media plane and through covert and drone wars but our dishonest leaders continue to appease the bashers. After destabilizing FATA and Balochistan and creating lawlessness in Karachi, and after resorting to water terrorism by building series of dams on our rivers to dry up Pakistan, India with the willing connivance of our rulers is now poised to wage an economic war to cripple our economy. It has opened up her border for Pakistani industrialists who are already depressed because of prolonged load shedding and are shifting to Malaysia, Indonesia and Bangladesh. India will be most convenient place for them to restart business. One can now see and understand why and how cleverly our energy crisis has been used as a weapon against us. It is essentially because of our morally bankrupt leadership that our nuclear deterrence has almost been compromised.
Although both Iran and Pakistan are ripe for foreign intervention, it cannot be predicted at this stage which country the US will choose to strike first. Apparently Iran seems to be priority target because of certain compelling reasons. Israel is becoming itchy and desperate and is putting massive pressure on USA to strike Iran's nuclear sites before it acquires weaponized nuclear capability. It knows that Tehran has speeded up its covert program despite string of sanctions and pressures. The US is reluctant since till recent its forces were heavily involved in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is still in a precarious situation owing to Afghanistan which has gone out of its control. Its economy is not getting stabilized and expenditure on war on terror is too weighty.
The Americans would not like opening of another war front. Rather, they want early termination of war on terror and return of soldiers who are getting killed almost daily. NATO countries are also wary of the war and have announced their intentions of pulling out of Afghanistan much before the cutout date of December 2014. Europe itself is going through serious economic crisis. In case Iran decides to close Hormuz, it will have crippling impact on the economy of Europe. Given the oil stakes of Russia and China in Iran, US-Israeli intrusion may trigger world war. Although conflict is in the interest of USA since it helps in running its war industry, however, after its bitter experience in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, the US would refrain from employing its combat troops in any future conflict zone. It would prefer to achieve its objectives by using covert means supplemented by drones, airpower, psychological and cyber warfare.
The fight back by resistance forces in Iraq and Afghanistan has not only drained the economy of USA but also upset its grandiose future plans to harness the resources of the Muslim world and micro-manage global affairs in accordance with its own whims. Afghan resistance has proved too costly since few thousand ill-equipped Taliban have rolled the honor and prestige of the sole super power claiming to be invincible in the dust. It is pulling out without defeating the Taliban and without arriving at a political settlement. Its hopes are pinned on India and ANA that the two would be able to keep the Taliban at bay after the departure of ISAF but judging from the ground realities, the assumption seems farfetched. Even the safe withdrawal of ISAF and its heavy baggage has become a big challenge.
These lurking fears and anxieties of USA are proving to be blessing in disguise for Pakistan and may prove helpful since it is the only country that can help a great deal in surmounting these formidable challenges in 2014. Other reasons why Pakistan may not be preferred over Iran is that it acts as the best bridge for Afghanistan and Central Asia and also provides deepwater seaport facility at Gawadar. Unstable Pakistan will hamper the withdrawal of ISAF as well as future commercial activities through the envisaged energy corridor.
Irrespective of the compulsions of USA, it cannot be denied that Pakistan is a target and not an ally of USA and sooner than later its turn will come. No amount of sacrifices rendered by Pakistan will satisfy USA. Nuclear Pakistan and that too having germs of defiance and brimming with anti-Indo-US-Israel extremist forces is unacceptable to the adversarial trio. Hence the apparent thawing of our relations with the US that had reached a breaking point must not mislead us into believing that the US has genuinely become friendly and cancelled its hidden objective to denuclearize Pakistan. Signing of Indo-Afghanistan and US-Afghanistan strategic partnership accords and recent demand by Afghan Parliament asking the US to attack Pakistan are ominous signs. Our western front will certainly get activated in any future Indo-Pak war. India has enhanced the scope of its Cold Start doctrine from eight to sixteen tactical objectives on our eastern front.
Although Gen Shameem Wynne is very confident that our nuclear arsenal is in safe hands and no harm can come to it, however, I am sure he at the inter service level and Gen Ashfaq Kayani at Army level must have worked out contingencies to deal with dangerous twin threat scenario backed by USA and Israel which is no more an illusion but a reality. I suggest this hypothesis should be played up in ongoing war game Azm-e-Nao IV to assess our response actions.   
The writer is a retired Brig, a columnist, a defence analyst and author of several books. Email: asifahroon7751@yahoo.com         

--
Shahzad Afzal
http://www.pakistanprobe.com/



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